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We harness in-depth understanding of the energy market to evaluate recent developments and provide insights that enable strategic decisions under competing opportunities and risks.

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Insights

Nigerian Gas – A Vanishing Opportunity?

Complete this form if you require a pdf version emailed to you Highlights As the “cleanest” fossil fuel, natural gas will be a “bridge fuel” in the transition to a global energy system that is dominated by renewable sources. Global gas demand is forecasted to rise by 40% in the next two decades, with gas exporters like Nigeria well placed to reap a windfall. This “golden age of gas” is at risk of being overrun by renewables, due to cost declines in solar PV and wind over the past decade that has resulted in massive renewables capacity additions. Since 2010,

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Insights

The Future of Oil – The View from December 2017

The oil industry has enjoyed its best 4 months in 2 and a half years, with the price of Brent crude holding steady above $60 per barrel (pb) since the last week of October. Falling global inventory, temporary disruptions and geopolitical risks in the Middle-East have combined to fuel this rally.

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Insights

The Future of Oil – The View from June 2017

At the end of May, as OPEC and other oil producers reached an agreement to extend oil production cuts until March 2018, most analysts expected the market to reward the announcement with some form of price rally. This anticipation was reinforced by a minor price recovery that was largely driven by statements in the build-up to the meeting, which strongly hinted at an extension. Surprisingly, the official announcement of the extension triggered a price decline that completely wiped out all the gains enjoyed since the original agreement was announced.

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Insights

The Future of Oil – The View from December 2016

Christmas came early for the oil industry. The one-two punch of the OPEC agreement, followed closely by an agreement with other oil producing nations, to cut oil production lifted oil prices by 20% to levels not seen since the mid-2015. As the market adjusts to this new paradigm, it is important to take a step back, soberly reflect on the big picture, and avoid being bogged down in the minutia of the oil market. This was the approach I took 6 months ago when I published an article grandly titled “The Future of Oil”. At the time, it was clear that the prevailing market conditions had set a price ceiling, with the price of Brent crude mostly staying below $53 per barrel (pb) until the OPEC agreement was announced on the 30th of November.

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Insights

The Future of Oil June 2016

The price of oil has nearly doubled since the lows of $27 per barrel reached at the end of January. The growing consensus among market analysts is that a market recovery is underway, with one analyst going as far as predicting that oil will reach $85 per barrel by Christmas. A glance at the evidence greatly supports this – OPEC’s failure to agree on a quota hasn’t curtailed the price rally, there is a steady drop in non-OPEC (read US shale) output, and a summer driving season is giving oil demand a boost.

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