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The oil industry has enjoyed its best 4 months in 2 and a half years, with the price of Brent crude holding steady above $60 per barrel (pb) since the last week of October. Falling global inventory, temporary disruptions and geopolitical risks in the Middle-East have combined to fuel this rally.
At the end of May, as OPEC and other oil producers reached an agreement to extend oil production cuts until March 2018, most analysts expected the market to reward the announcement with some form of price rally. This anticipation was reinforced by a minor price recovery that was largely driven by statements in the build-up to the meeting, which strongly hinted at an extension. Surprisingly, the official announcement of the extension triggered a price decline that completely wiped out all the gains enjoyed since the original agreement was announced.