December 21, 2016

Christmas came early for the oil industry. The one-two punch of the OPEC agreement, followed closely by an agreement with other oil producing nations, to cut oil production lifted oil prices by 20% to levels not seen since the mid-2015. As the market adjusts to this new paradigm, it is important to take a step back, soberly reflect on the big picture, and avoid being bogged down in the minutia of the oil market. This was the approach I took 6 months ago when I published an article grandly titled “The Future of Oil”. At the time, it was clear that the prevailing market conditions had set a price ceiling, with the price of Brent crude mostly staying below $53 per barrel (pb) until the OPEC agreement was announced on the 30th of November.